Canadian Monthly GDP - July 31, 2012

The Canadian economy expanded 0.1 per cent in May, after increasing 0.3 per cent in April.  At the industry level, economic growth was driven by a 0.7 per cent increase in retail trade and a 0.5 per cent bounce in finance and insurance output. Real GDP growth was also given a boost by increased mining and oil and gas extraction.  Lagging industries included manufacturing (down 0.5 per cent) and construction (down 0.2 per cent).  The output of real estate agents and brokers fell 4.8 per cent at the national level following three consecutive months of increasing activity.

Canadian real GDP is on track to grow 1.5 to 2.0 per cent in the second quarter of the year, close to the 1.8 per cent forecast by the Bank of Canada and in line with BCREA's own forecast.  The second half of the year holds a number of risks for the Canadian economy, including further Euro uncertainty and a slowdown in the US economy.  We forecast that the Canadian economy will generate modest growth in 2012 of around 2.1 per cent.

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